Tourism In The Third Millenium

Learning Objectives

• Examine forecasts concerning the growth of international tourism.
• Identify the major global forces that are shaping the tourism of tomorrow.
• Understand the impacts, both positive and negative, that these forces are likely to have on tourism markets and on the ability of destinations to respond to the demands of these markets.

Introduction

According to Edward Cornish “ We cannot make the wise choice if we do not understand current world trends and their likely consequence for ourselves and the options we have for achieving our goals.”

Despite the current concerns caused by climate change, the future of tourism, at least for the next decade, continues to be full of promise. Projections concerning levels of arrivals, receipts, and growth in employment for most destinations have tourism, the contents of this chapter reflect the general optimism that continues to pervade the travel industry.

Over and above the tourism, what is especially important about this chapter is its attempt to define some of the more specific dimensions of future changes, and the challenges and opportunities they create. In addition, it seeks to indicate how the travel product may need to evolve in response to these challenges and opportunities.

Finally, we also wish to sound a cautious note. As shown by the 1998 Asian economic crises, even the most dynamic of economics can turn sour. On top of this, the events of September 11, 2001, had a devastating impact on travel. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) also drastically impacted Asian and Canadian travel. While stability and growth have returned t these regions, the lessons of history are that we must learn to manage effectively in bad times as well as good. So while readers should prepare for the optimistic future trends this chapter presents, they should also ask themselves “what if?” How might the travel industry take advantage of periods of climate change and lower economic growth? How might the travel industry be a catalyst for other sectors of the economy? As we said at the travel industry text-bon voyage !

Tourism In The Third Millenium

The purpose of this book has been to provide the students with a basic understanding of the principles, practices and philosophies of tourism as they relate to the industry of today. To understand the present , it has of course been necessary to review the evolution and historical development of the field. Clearly, the tourism industry of today is the product of many forces that have shaped both its structure and the manner in which it functions. As has been pointed out on several occasions, the growth and development of tourism have been particularly rapid over the past half century.

• Since 1950, when international travel started to become accessible to the general public, tourist activity has risen from 25 million to 842 million arrivals in 2006. International tourism receipts have risen from the US $ 2.1 billion to the US $ 735 billion in 2006.
• International tourism receipts grew faster than world trade in the 1980s and now constitute a higher proportion of the value of world exports than all sectors other than crude petroleum/petroleum products and motor vehicles/parts/accessories.

The result is that tourism, as we entered the third millennium, was a very large and dynamic sector of the economy. Because of the rapid growth and change of the past, one might be inclined to believe that tourism has now reached a mature phase of its development in which the rate of change and expansion will decrease.

On the other hand, a realistic assessment of the probable future suggests that despite the challenges it faces( and has always faced), tourism is likely to continue to grow and develop more rapidly and more rapidly and more dynamically than many other sections for many years to come.